The Forces Shaping Tomorrow’s World

(Navigating the Intersection of Technology, Economy, Humanity and Sustainability)

By Bhupendra Thapa

“The forces shaping tomorrow's world are powerful and interconnected. Artificial intelligence, economic transformation, digital development, sustainability and geopolitical changes are creating both opportunities and challenges. The future will be shaped by how effectively societies manage these forces and transform challenges into opportunities. The greatest challenge is not adapting to change but ensuring that change leads to meaningful progress. The future is something we collectively create, starting today.”

To begin with, the world is entering a period of rapid change. Artificial intelligence is transforming industries, international trade is adjusting to geopolitical tensions, and digital services are creating new opportunities for businesses and workers. At the same time, countries face economic uncertainty, unequal access to technology, and growing pressure to meet their energy and environmental needs.

These developments are closely connected. Technological progress can improve productivity, but its benefits depend on investment, skills, infrastructure, and access to reliable energy. International trade can create jobs and lower costs, but political tensions can interrupt supply chains and increase uncertainty. Economic growth can raise living standards, yet it does not automatically guarantee that the benefits reach everyone.

Understanding these connections is essential to understanding the direction of the global economy. Recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the International Energy Agency (IEA) offer useful evidence of how these forces are shaping the years ahead.

The Economy Overall: Resilient, but Growing More Slowly

The global economy continues to expand, although growth remains uneven across countries. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook projected global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026. Advanced economies were expected to grow by 1.8%, while emerging market and developing economies were projected to grow by 3.9%.

These figures show that developing economies are expected to grow faster than advanced economies. However, faster growth does not necessarily mean that all developing countries are becoming more prosperous at the same pace. Differences in productivity, infrastructure, access to finance, education, and political stability continue to influence economic performance.

Global trade provides another sign of economic resilience. According to UNCTAD, the value of global trade in goods and services surpassed $35 trillion in 2025, setting a new record. Trade value increased by approximately 7.5% during the year, with goods and services both contributing to the expansion.

However, an increase in trade value does not mean that the physical volume of trade grew at the same rate. Prices, exchange rates, and changes in the composition of traded products can also affect the total value. This distinction matters when evaluating whether the global economy is producing and trading more goods and services or simply trading them at higher prices.

The broader picture is therefore mixed. The global economy has continued to grow despite uncertainty, but the benefits and risks are not evenly distributed. Strong headline figures should not distract from the challenges faced by countries with limited productive capacity, high borrowing costs, or heavy dependence on a small number of export industries.

Where AI Is Showing Up Most Concretely: Trade Composition

Artificial intelligence is becoming an important force in international trade. Its influence is visible not only in software and online services but also in semiconductors, computing equipment, data-centre infrastructure, and other products required to develop and operate AI systems.

The WTO reported that AI-enabling goods accounted for approximately 42% of global merchandise trade growth in 2025, even though they represented only around one-sixth of global merchandise trade. This finding illustrates how a relatively narrow group of technology-related products can make a substantial contribution to overall trade expansion.

More recent figures show that this trend continued into 2026. In the first half of the year, AI-enabling goods accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in value terms. Their share of global merchandise trade reached 14.8% during the same period.

These figures highlight the growing importance of AI-related supply chains. Countries that manufacture advanced chips, electronic components, computing equipment, and related products may benefit from increased investment and demand. Businesses outside these industries can also gain from AI if they use it to improve customer service, reduce operating costs, analyse information, or develop new products.

Nevertheless, the gains are not automatic. Developing AI systems requires skilled workers, reliable electricity, computing infrastructure, investment, and access to markets. Countries that lack these foundations may struggle to benefit fully, even as demand for AI-related products and services increases.

There is also a risk of excessive expectations. Investment in AI infrastructure can create new economic opportunities, but companies must eventually generate sufficient revenue and productivity improvements to justify their spending. Rapid growth in AI-related trade should therefore be viewed as evidence of changing demand, not as proof that every AI investment will produce lasting returns.

Geopolitical Fragmentation: The Cost Is Now Quantified, Not Just Discussed

International trade is influenced not only by economic efficiency but also by political relationships and national security concerns. Governments increasingly consider where important products are manufactured, which countries control essential technologies, and whether supply chains could be disrupted by sanctions or conflict.

This shift has encouraged businesses and governments to diversify suppliers, bring some production closer to home, and reduce dependence on selected foreign markets. Such measures can improve resilience in certain circumstances. However, they may also increase costs when companies replace efficient suppliers with more expensive alternatives for political reasons.

The World Economic Forum estimated in 2026 that existing trade and financial fragmentation policies could cost the global economy between $213 billion and $307 billion annually and add around 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points to global inflation. Its analysis also considered a much more severe scenario in which losses could reach $6.9 trillion, equivalent to approximately 6.4% of global GDP.

The distinction between these estimates is important. The annual cost is an estimate associated with existing fragmentation policies, whereas the $6.9 trillion figure represents a hypothetical severe scenario. It should not be interpreted as a loss that has already occurred.

The WTO’s World Trade Report 2026 also examined possible outcomes if the international trading system became more divided. In one scenario involving geopolitical trading blocs, global GDP was estimated to be 5.1% lower than under the report’s comparison scenario. In a separate scenario in which multilateral cooperation was replaced by free-trade agreements and the WTO no longer operated, the estimated reduction reached 6.9%.

These are modelled scenarios, not predictions that such losses will definitely happen. Their value lies in showing the potential economic consequences of weaker international cooperation.

The challenge is to balance national security with the benefits of international exchange. Diversifying suppliers can reduce dependence on a single source, but widespread restrictions can raise prices, reduce competition, and limit access to technology. A more resilient global economy does not necessarily require every country to produce everything domestically. It requires reliable supply chains, sensible risk management, and cooperation where shared interests remain strong.

The Digital Economy: Growing Fast, but Unevenly Distributed

Digital technology has changed how businesses communicate, deliver services, and reach customers. Services that once required a physical presence can now be supplied across borders through online platforms. These include software, consulting, financial services, design, education, and other professional activities.

UNCTAD reported that digitally deliverable services accounted for approximately 56% of global services exports in 2025. The share was about 61% in developed economies, compared with 16% in least developed countries.

The difference reveals an important challenge. Digital services can allow businesses to reach international customers without establishing offices in every market. However, taking advantage of these opportunities requires more than an internet connection. Businesses also need digital skills, reliable electricity, suitable payment systems, secure online infrastructure, and access to international networks.

For smaller businesses, digital platforms can lower some entry barriers. A service provider may be able to find customers abroad without the cost of opening a foreign office. At the same time, competition can become more intense because local businesses must compete with providers from many other countries. Platform fees, data protection rules, online fraud, and unequal access to technology can create additional difficulties.

Artificial intelligence may widen these opportunities by helping businesses automate routine tasks, translate content, analyse data, and improve customer support. Yet the technology could also widen existing inequalities if its benefits concentrate among companies and countries that already possess strong infrastructure and specialised skills.

For developing economies, the policy challenge is not simply to adopt the latest technology. It is to build the conditions that allow people and businesses to use it productively. Investment in education, digital infrastructure, cybersecurity, and reliable electricity can help turn technological access into meaningful economic participation.

Why These Forces Don’t Move Independently of Each Other

Technology, trade, economic growth, and sustainability are parts of the same system. A change in one area can create consequences across the others.

AI provides a clear example. Demand for advanced computing equipment can increase international trade and attract investment. But AI systems also require data centres, networks, and substantial amounts of electricity. The International Energy Agency estimated in its 2025 analysis that global data-centre electricity consumption could rise from around 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 to approximately 945 terawatt-hours by 2030 in its base case (IEA, 2025). These figures are projections, not confirmed future consumption.

This expected increase creates both opportunities and challenges. Data-centre investment can support construction, technology services, and energy infrastructure. However, it can also place pressure on electricity grids, especially in locations where supply is already limited. If electricity generation relies heavily on fossil fuels, additional demand may also increase emissions.

The environmental effect will depend partly on how this demand is met. Renewable energy, nuclear power, improvements in computing efficiency, and better management of electricity demand can help limit the environmental costs. However, these solutions require planning, investment, and coordination between technology companies, energy providers, and governments.

Trade fragmentation can complicate the process. Restrictions on technology and critical materials may affect the cost and availability of equipment needed for digital infrastructure and clean-energy projects. Conversely, stable international trade can help countries access technologies, components, and expertise that may be difficult or expensive to develop independently.

The relationship between these forces shows why economic progress cannot be measured by one indicator alone. GDP growth and trade expansion matter, but so do productivity, the distribution of opportunities, energy reliability, and environmental impact. Sustainable progress requires these objectives to support one another rather than compete unnecessarily.

What This Means in Practice

For governments, the priority should be to build productive economies that can adapt to technological and geopolitical changes. This includes investing in education, research, digital infrastructure, reliable energy, and institutions that support fair competition. Governments also need to protect legitimate security interests without introducing unnecessary restrictions that weaken trade and raise costs.

For businesses, flexibility and sound decision-making are increasingly important. Companies should examine their supply-chain risks, develop the skills of their workers, and assess AI investments based on realistic business needs rather than excitement about new technology alone. Digital tools can improve productivity, but their value depends on whether they solve real problems and produce measurable benefits.

For workers, lifelong learning is becoming more important as technology changes job requirements. Digital skills, communication, problem-solving, and the ability to adapt can help people respond to changes in the labour market. However, workers should not be expected to manage this transition alone. Employers, educational institutions, and governments all have a role in providing training and supporting people affected by technological change.

For developing economies, the challenge is to connect global opportunities with local capabilities. Exporting digital services, attracting responsible investment, and participating in technology-related supply chains can support growth. But these opportunities are more likely to produce lasting benefits when countries also strengthen education, infrastructure, energy systems, and access to finance.

Finally, sustainability should be treated as an economic consideration rather than a separate concern. Reliable and cleaner energy can support long-term competitiveness, while energy inefficiency and environmental damage can create future costs. Technology can contribute to solutions, but its own resource requirements must also be managed carefully.

Progress Depends on How the Forces Are Managed

The evidence suggests that the future will not be determined by technology alone. AI-related products are contributing substantially to trade growth, digital services are expanding opportunities for international business, and the global economy continues to grow. At the same time, fragmentation threatens to reduce efficiency, unequal digital access limits participation, and rising electricity demand presents new challenges.

In my view, the most important distinction is between growth and progress. Growth tells us whether economic activity is increasing; progress asks whether that growth improves people's lives, creates productive opportunities, strengthens resilience, and remains environmentally manageable.

For example, a country may attract investment in AI infrastructure and increase its exports. Yet if it lacks the skilled workers and reliable energy needed to support that investment, the wider benefits may remain limited. Similarly, protecting domestic industries may appear attractive in the short term, but excessive restrictions can increase costs and reduce access to important technologies.

The better approach is neither to embrace every technological development without question nor to retreat from international cooperation. It is to adopt innovation where it delivers real benefits, maintain trade relationships that strengthen resilience, and invest in the people and infrastructure needed to share the gains.

The forces shaping tomorrow’s world are already visible. The greater challenge is deciding how to manage them. Countries and businesses that combine innovation with cooperation, practical planning, and environmental responsibility will be better positioned to turn uncertainty into opportunity.

Sources

International Energy Agency. (2025). Energy and AI. https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai

International Monetary Fund. (2026). World economic outlook, April 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2026). Global trade update, April 2026: Global trade growth continues, fragility rises. https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-april-2026-global-trade-growth-continues-fragility-rises

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2026). Global trade update, September 2026: Services are reshaping global trade. https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-september-2026-services-are-reshaping-global-trade

World Economic Forum. (2026). Deepening divides: The cost of a more fragmented financial system. https://www.weforum.org/publications/deepening-divides-the-cost-of-a-more-fragmented-financial-system/

World Trade Organization. (2026). World trade report 2026. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/world-trade-report-2026_execsum_e.htm

World Trade Organization. (2026, October 8). Global trade outlook and statistics. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/stat_08oct26_510_e.htm